Good Reason

It's okay to be wrong. It's not okay to stay wrong.

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I got your community standards right here!

25 June 2008 / / 2 Comments

I tell ya, that Google’s useful for all kinds of things.

The operator of a porn web site has been brought to trial for violating ‘community standards’. But who knows what ‘community standards’ are? Well, his lawyer has an interesting answer: check out Google Trends and see what the community’s really up to!

In Florida, it turns out that the search term ‘orgy’ is as American as ‘apple pie’.

Except that ‘apple pie’ hits a spike around Thanksgiving, but ‘orgy’ is popular year-round.

But Perth? Looks like we’re just into surfing. New South Wales is a different story. It’s just about Orgy Season over there. Meanwhile, in Victoria, the worrying fisting trend continues unabated.

The death of religion meets the rise of superstition

24 June 2008 / / 5 Comments

Could Christianity die out within a century? This article says:

Christianity ‘could die out within a century’

Research by the Orthodox Jewish organisation Aish found that just over a third of people thought religions like Christianity and Judaism would still be practiced in Britain in 100 years’ time.

Although four in 10 people said they would choose to be a member of the Christian religion, almost the same number said they would rather practice no religion at all.

Hmm. The Extinction of the Monotheisms sounds good until you start thinking about what’s going to replace them. The poor thinking that causes religion isn’t going to go away until humans get better brains, and how long is that going to take?

The new religions are probably going to take the form of Teh Secret or something. Some kind of feel-good new-agey proto faith that doesn’t require a lot of time or commitment, but that seems to give results to those who are magically minded.

And that includes a lot of smart people. I just got an email from a smart friend who I love dearly, but he attached a PDF that he thought was wonderful. It’s called “The Master Key” by Charles F. Haanel. Here’s a link to a PDF of the first two parts only. (Even so, it’s 1.2 meg of woo.) Maybe you’d rather read about the Master Key from this site.

It has been said that The Master Key System is the book that Bill Gates read just before leaving Harvard to start his own computer software business, which made him the wealthiest man in the world.

Any evidence for the Gates tie-in?

This book holds the secret of a powerful system of success, which was used by the author, Charles F. Haanel to amass his own mega-fortune through the starting of his own company, which he built into one of the largest conglomerates of his time.

And its name is…?

The Master Key System, which was originally published in 1912, sold over 200,000 copies before it was banned by the church in 1933 and was then lost to the public for some seventy years.

Anyone’s da Vinci Code alarm going off?

The Master Key System lays down the foundation of the principles of creative manifestation through the Law of Attraction, as Haanel understood them. You will learn how to develop and use the creative instrument of your mind—creating true abundance in your life and opening up to the limitless possibilities of the truly creative life.

Wait a minute. The Law of…

It’s Teh Proto-Secret! Well, damn. I am impressed. Haanel must have been a hundred years before his time. Of course, a hundred years early on bullshit’s still bullshit.

Now, that’s not fair. I haven’t even read the thing yet, and here I am being all closed-minded. Bad critical thinker! Bad!

That’s better. Let’s take a look. Here we are, page 7.

22. We are related to the world within by the subconscious mind. The solar plexus is the organ of this mind; the sympathetic system of nerves presides over all subjective sensations, such as joy, fear, love, emotion, respiration, imagination and all other subconscious phenomena. It is through the subconscious that we are connected with the Universal Mind and brought into relation with the Infinite constructive forces of the Universe.

Well, that all seems perfaaaaauuuuggggghhhhhhhhhh…….

Sorry, part of my pre-frontal lobe just turned to goo. I think I just lost algebra.

In one paragraph, we have specious claims about the mind/body connection, conflation of emotions with autonomic nervous processes (hey, kids, did you know that your solar plexus could do all that?), a construct called the Universal Mind but no evidence for it, and enough fluffy talk to put a horse to sleep. That’s some concentrated woo there. I think the jargon to evidence ratio just approached infinity, and when that happens, we run the risk of Universe Collapse.

I’ve written about Teh Secret before. People think the Master Key or The Secret works because of confirmation bias. Sometimes you get what you want, sometimes you don’t, but if you’re focusing on it, you’ll notice when you do, and forget when you don’t. And of course, you’re much more likely to get what you want if you’re working at it than if you’re not. Nothing mystical about it, and certainly nothing to do with your solar plexus.

So I’m in the car with the ropes and the duct tape, ready to tie up my friend and subject him to the Daniel Course for Critical Thinking (which I haven’t even written yet) when I think, “Hey, what does it matter? Is it going to hurt him if he believes some woo here and there? What harm is there in a false belief?”

Here are my answers. See what you think.

1. Magical thinking leaves you susceptible to scams. Buying into a really bad premise makes it possible to buy into more. Examples?

  • If you accept that supernatural beings exist, then it follows that you’d better try to find out what they want you to do. Next it’s joining and supporting a church or some other non-empirical system with your money and time. Bad idea.
  • If you accept that the universe has a Consciousness, then it’s not that preposterous to think that you can influence it to get what you want. Soon, you’re trying superstitious methods to get it (which don’t work). Superstition is a waste of time, and it leaves you helpless before its purveyors.
  • If gurus know the Secret of Life better than you do, then it follows that you should fork out cash to get their wisdom.

On and on. Critical thinking can save us from scammers.

2. Lack of critical thinking harms societies, not just people. A society full of delusional people is not healthy, and will have a harder time solving its problems. The more empirically-minded people we have, the more our collective knowledge grows, and the more likely we are to find working solutions to the problems that face us. I noticed this story about people who are trying to have lower petrol prices… through prayer. So far, somehow, not effective. What if everyone just prayed, instead of a) working to develop technologies for alternative energy, b) changing the way they live to conserve a bit more?

What I’m advocating is acceptance of critical thinking and rejection of superstition. Not replacement of one superstition with another. This is only going to get more important in the post-religion vacuum.

RIP, George.

23 June 2008 / / 3 Comments

Deconversion stories: The Dude with the Horns

23 June 2008 / / 9 Comments

As a religious youth, I was told about Satan. The Adversary. The Tempter. The one who puts all the backwards messages in records. Mormons don’t dwell on the Devil — I heard people say it gave him more ‘power’ — but he was always there hovering around the periphery of my morality.

The Satan meme is a real mindfuck. There’s a totally evil supernatural person who wants you to do bad things. Don’t do what Satan wants. How do you know what Satan wants? It’s bad. What makes something ‘bad’? Satan wants you to do it. And round it goes. Figuring out what Satan wants you to do is like asking who the Terrists want you to vote for. Could they do the ol’ Double Reverse Psychological Fake-out? And of course, if someone starts to question the teaching of the religion, who’s been putting those thoughts into your head? Yep. Better get back in line.

Satan isn’t just a great control tool. He’s a dodge to the problem of Evil. If God’s good and in charge, why do evil things happen? For some reason, saying ‘You are evil’ wasn’t the answer people liked, so Satan did the trick. Why is there evil? Satan. There you go. God is still good, but he wants to see if you’ll follow him or the Devil.

P.S. You are evil.

And it answered a whole lot. Why do ouija boards seem to work? Satan (or one of his many helpers) is moving the table thing. Why do I want to do bad things? You’re being tempted by Satan, he’s putting thoughts into your head. (Another mindfuck. An invisible person is putting thoughts in my head? Scary!) Why are there so many religions? Satan is deceiving people and leading them astray. Satan Satan Satan. Very useful. If he didn’t exist, we’d have to invent him.

As it seems we did. This page tells how Satan doesn’t appear to be much of a character in early Hebrew lore (talking snakes notwithstanding). The Hebrew word s’tn simply means ‘adversary’ or ‘opposer’. In 1 Samuel 29:4, it tells how the Philistines mistrusted David, fearing that he would be a ‘satan’, or someone who would oppose them. Only later after the Hebrews ran into the Persians with their Zoroastrian dualism did Satan become an actual character, and for a while there he and the Lord were pretty chummy (see Job).

For me, Satan’s undoing was when I ran into this page about the Ouija Board that church leaders so straitly charged me not to play with.

Some users believe that paranormal or supernatural forces are at work in spelling out Ouija board answers. Skeptics believe that those using the board either consciously or unconsciously move the pointer to what is selected. To prove this, simply try it blindfolded for some time, having an innocent bystander take notes on what words or letters are selected. Usually, the results will be unintelligible.

So the church leaders were right, but they had the wrong reason. You shouldn’t play with the thing, but because it’s stupid, not satanic. A scary spiritual phenomenon had a perfectly sane material explanation. I wonder what else does, thought I.

I reviewed my knowledge of the Horned One, and found that he’s usually held responsible for three things:

  1. Temptation
  2. Deception
  3. Possession

But, you say, what about reality TV?

That falls under ‘Possession’.

Let’s take them one by one.

Temptation. Do people really think that a spirit being is somehow… what, whispering to you? And then you want to do bad things? How would that happen? This has the whiff of dissociation. Why not take responsibility for your own desires?

Deception. Well, the world is a confusing place. It’s easy to be mistaken. But I’ve found that the one who deceives me the most is good old me. No need to blame an invisible being.

Possession can be explained these days by mental illness, though it must have seemed devilishly scary to people in New Testament times.

In short, everything that people blame Satan for can be explained simply, materially, and non-mysteriously, leaving Satan as rather extraneous. Our theory works just as well without him. Occam’s Razor claims another victim.

Once I’d got that settled, it was the beginning of the end for supernaturalism. Turn it around, and suddenly everything we thought god did turns out to be the product of natural forces. No gods. No devils. No angels or demons. Just gravitation, evolution and us, working for good or ill. But then I suppose that’s just what Satan would want me to think.

A true believer in the audience isn’t satisfied. But if there’s no Satan, he wails, then why is the world getting worse and worse?

It’s not, but with that attitude I suppose you can make it as bad as you want.

English First = xenophobia

17 June 2008 / / 4 Comments

Americans think that it’s important to learn languages. As long as the language is ‘English’, and the learner is ‘someone else‘.

Americans believe by large majorities that it is more important for newcomers to learn English than it is for their fellow citizens to become bilingual.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey reveals that 83% of likely voters place a higher priority on encouraging immigrants to speak English as their primary language.

Just 13% take the opposite view and say it is more important for Americans to learn other languages.
…
Broken down along party lines, 79% of Republicans and 59% of Democrats reject the idea that all Americans should know multiple languages. Among unaffiliated voters, 68% say their fellow citizens do not need to know a language other than English.

Last fall, a Rasmussen Reports survey found that 77% of Americans believed that employers should be allowed to require employees to speak English while on the job.

We tend to feel very attached to our language. It’s our tool for expressing who we are. We might not even be able to think without it. As a linguist, I’ve noticed that even smart, aware people aren’t very good at examining their language attitudes. That means it’s an area where our darkest urges can pool and simmer. And that means that we can frequently find xenophobia lurking here.

An antidote is to learn to talk the way someone else does. Not only do I want to see official documents available in other languages, I want to see second language instruction promoted more aggressively in schools. It’s not just a way to expand the mind, it’s a way to combat the more pernicious kinds of intolerance.

He’ll bollix up everything, given the chance.

14 June 2008 / / 2 Comments

Did John McCain make a reference to testicles in a recent speech?

As a matter of fact, he did.

The United States Supreme Court yesterday rendered a decision which I think is one of the worst decisions in the history of this country.
…
So now what are we going to do. We are now going to have the courts flooded with so-called, quote, Habeas Corpus suits against the government, whether it be about the diet, whether it be about the reading material. And we are going to be bollixed up in a way that is terribly unfortunate, because we need to go ahead and adjudicate these cases.

Astute readers might have noticed that ‘bollix’ appears to be a variant of ‘bollocks’, which indeed it is.

The Online Etymological Dictionary (that’s the other OED) says it’s a

respelling (euphemistic?) of bollocks, pl. of bollock “testicle,” from O.E. beallucas “testicles,”

As to the content, McCain is arguing that the rule of law shouldn’t be followed because it’s too time-consuming. Much better to just throw people in jail forever because you just know in your heart that they’re guilty.

To which I say, bollocks.

Religious nutter Turing Test

13 June 2008 / / 8 Comments

The Turing Test is a classic in AI. On one side of the screen is you, and on the other side there’s either a human typing to you, or a computer generating text to you. A computer system passes the Turing Test if you can’t tell the difference between the computer and a human.

But when the human is a religious ranter, it tends to lower the bar a bit.

So here’s your test. One of the following text blocks is a bit of an email I got today from ‘Günter’, a poor soul trapped in two false beliefs: that supernatural beings exist, and that he can write comprehensible English.

The other block of text was made with a simple Markov chain trained on word trigrams from Günter’s email.

Sample number one:

Every thing, Love is a ground-need, without Love no Feelings are working, no human can find anymore satisfaction no matter what he trays to do it, the highest law of God, and no grace. Not even when somebody used your Authority-shyness like always, it is exactly the same. With Love the Apocalypse is running for ten years. {Glasshouse-effect? Global warming ?}.You can easy scientific prove, it is up to you. Jesus said <I came on earth to bring the Love and only where the Love and how to do Love, try it and you have to feel it. John says <even when you are doing what I say {that only is FAITH} and not only when you know about it>.Jesus said: sacrifice your self <you have to like them in any way, only give what you have<Logo>!

Number two:

That’s why Jesus said the End is near. The human where believing that Love is: cooking a meal; mending socks; squeeze a lemon; give Money, Tender; Fondness or even Sexuality. They filling up whole Libraries with books about Love, only in the explanation of the Old Testament {Torah; Koran; Kamathutra ;} or Jesus was never one interested. Jesus tried to teach Love and how to do it, the highest law of God. Out of the old scriptures he explained; proofing and showed in life what he is talking about. God says in the in the Old Testament; Torah; Koran; Kamathutra; <I m the Love and only the Love and only where the Love is can I be.> don’t make a picture or allegory {don’t compare me with nothing or nobody} of me. Never!!

Well, humans, which is the person, and which is the computer?

Sarcasm experiment

9 June 2008 / / 1 Comment

Sarcasm’s a funny thing. You say the opposite of what you mean, but somehow the other person uses their knowledge of the situation and the ordinary meaning of your words to unwind the utterance and decode your intention.

A new study gives some insight into what’s happening brain-wise. Usually it’s the left hemisphere that handles language, but apparently when part of the right hemisphere is knocked out, people become unable to pick up on the paralinguistic cues (like intonational contour) that signal an indirect speech act like sarcasm.

Although people with mild Alzheimer’s disease perceived the sarcasm as well as anyone, it went over the heads of many of those with semantic dementia, a progressive brain disease in which people forget words and their meanings.

“You would think that because they lose language, they would pay close attention to the paralinguistic elements of the communication,” Dr. Rankin said.

To her surprise, though, the magnetic resonance scans revealed that the part of the brain lost among those who failed to perceive sarcasm was not in the left hemisphere of the brain, which specializes in language and social interactions, but in a part of the right hemisphere previously identified as important only to detecting contextual background changes in visual tests.

Context, eh? Can’t understand sarcasm without that.

I’m serious.

Happy Nerdmas!

9 June 2008 / / 3 Comments

Yes, I did turn 15,000 days old on Sunday. And I know because of the Birthday Calculator. To celebrate the event, I wrote a lot of maudlin things that you’d never want to read, and then to spare you the agony, I deleted them.

I’ll just say that this next 15,000 days (if I get them all) are going to be the best. Found true love? Check! Had two charming sons? Check. Thesis finished? Almost check! (Check minus. But soon.) I figure even if I died today, I still got a lot more life than most people in history ever did.

I feel like I now have a grip on this ‘living’ thing. As an adolescent, I used to feel angry or morose a lot, like I suppose people do. Thank goodness that phase passed. Now I feel more comfortable, more like me. I feel pretty good where I am, and ready for the rest of my life.

I really like being alive.

Obama thread

5 June 2008 / / 6 Comments

I am proud to be an American this day.

The Democratic nominee for president is by all appearances an intelligent and capable person who seems able to deal with the opposition in a forthright manner.

And the fact that he’s African-American is tremendously important to me as a symbol of how things have changed.

If Hillary had been the candidate, I would have been equally proud. I’m glad it’s not Hillary though.

Now. To the election. There’s a long way before November, but some wildly optimistic and perhaps inaccurate predictions are in order.

I predict that Obama will beat McCain in a landslide on the order of Reagan/Mondale. Junior has damaged the brand irreparably, and McCain’s cranky old man schtick will play unfavourably against Obama’s charisma and knowledge.

I say Obama gets 521 electoral votes to McCain’s 17. (The seventeen votes will come from Utah, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.)

Obama will get 52% of the popular vote, to McCain’s 42%.

Your predictions for posterity in comments. Both the electoral votes and the popular vote, if you please. Or just wax rhapsodic about your favourite candidate.

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