Good Reason

It's okay to be wrong. It's not okay to stay wrong.

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Book of Mormon genetics, or the Incredible Vanishing Hebrews

Michael R. Ash is an LDS apologist, which is kind of like being a scholar, except that instead of making knowledge, you make excuses. His latest article at the Mormon Times tackles the DNA issue.

The DNA issue is a problem. The Book of Mormon purports to be the story of people of Hebrew ancestry (sometimes called ‘Lehites’) who traveled to the Americas. We should expect a healthy percentage of their descendants to have DNA that corresponds to that of a Hebrew population. But DNA studies have shown fairly conclusively that people in this region test up Asian. At this point, it would be reasonable to conclude that the Book of Mormon represents a failed hypothesis. But this is very difficult for True Believers to do without saying ‘yes, but’ and ‘what if’. Many would rather listen to LDS apologists like Ash, who sing the faithful back to sleep, and delay the advance of knowledge. Let’s see what he’s come up with this time.

As noted in an earlier column, I believe the scientific world is part of God’s truth. Therefore, I not only accept the current DNA studies as accurate, I also don’t believe God simply changed Nephite and Lamanite DNA to Asiatic DNA in order to fool scientists. While God certainly has power over all things, I can’t accept that he intentionally deceives us.

I’d like to give Ash props on this, but I can’t. True, he gets the little things right, but his actual commitment to science is paper-thin, ready to be discarded in favour of far-fetched scenarios when it comes down to it. I could say he has a form of science-ness, but he denies the power thereof. I would rather he were hot or cold.

Ash (along with other apologists) argues that it’s not possible to find Lehite DNA because…

We don’t know what “Israelite” DNA from Lehi’s time looks like. We have a general idea of what the DNA of modern Middle-Eastern populations looks like, and we know that as of today it has not been detected among Native Americans, but because we don’t know anything about the DNA of Lehi’s party, we can’t exclude that it could fit among the multiple Asiatic markers we find in modern Native Americans.

I’m not a geneticist. (Although, neither is Ash.) But from my reading, this claim seems untrue. This work has been done, and Native Americans and Hebrews appear to have very little mtDNA in common.

If it’s so difficult to track DNA, then why are geneticists able to do it for other groups? I ran across this description of the Lemba, an African group that claims to have split off from the main body of Israelites, and who in fact do carry the Cohen modal haplotype, a marker of Hebrew origin. If it’s possible to track this group after so long (and on the Y-chromosome, no less), why not the descendants of the Lehites?

Ash again.

DNA markers can disappear. According to virtually all scientists who specialize in DNA as it pertains to population genetics, when small populations mix with large populations there is a significant possibility of losing the DNA signatures of the smaller population.

Genetic bottlenecks, for instance, occur when a significant portion of a population does not reproduce or doesn’t pass mtDNA on to its progeny. If the original Nephites and Lamanites had mostly sons rather than daughters, for example, those sons would have married native women and the mother’s DNA — not Lehi’s wife Sariah’s DNA — would have passed on to the children.

This is a big leap. In order for Ash’s argument to hold, the Lehite women would have to have had no babies. Or babies, but no girls. Usually, the proportion of boys to girls will be about 50:50 for good-sized populations. How come no girls in this case? Were the Lehites into female infanticide? Or were the Lehite girls just not very popular? Are we to assume that none of the maternal Lehite line got through?

Ash’s scenario is incredibly improbable, but it gets worse. For Ash to be right, the same bottleneck would have to have happened twice, once with the much-earlier Mulekites, and again with the Lehites.

So once again, it’s the Incredible Vanishing Hebrews Who Leave No Artifacts. At some point you have to ask yourself: What’s more likely – that an incredibly improbable genetic bottleneck happened twice (and it conveniently coincides with the framework of speculations that Ash promotes elsewhere) — or that someone wrote a fake book?

Wait: I’ve just had a revelation. I’ve just figured out why Lehites left no DNA.

Lehi and Sariah were actually Native Americans. They traveled by boat to get to the Middle East, like Thor Heyerdahl in reverse. That could explain how they were able to navigate the trip back to the Americas so easily. In fact, since so many people from the Book of Mormon were cruising over to the New World, it must have been a piece of cake in either direction. I’m sure that when we finally get those large plates of Nephi, Lehi’s genealogy will turn out just like I say. After all, my evidence is just as solid as anything Ash has written.

Curmudgeonly Scrabble Resistance: enlist now

Normal people don’t like playing Scrabble with me.

I have all the two-letter words memorised, I’m not bad with my three-letter hooks, and I always have a copy of the OSPD handy during a game. I also have a habit of laying tiles next to other tiles in a tight little bolus, which has the unfortunate effect of locking down the board so tightly that it can’t breathe. But I admit it’s a really unpleasant habit.

The other unpleasant habit I have is making up new words and placing them with confidence. I sometimes have to add, “It’s a word. I am a linguist, you know.”

Sometimes an opponent will complain about the words I use.

Za? What’s za?” is how it typically begins.

“It’s short for ‘pizza’,” I explain.

“That’s stupid. ‘Za’ isn’t a word, and neither is ‘aa’, which you said was a kind of lava. I’m not going to play if you’re going to use dumb words.”

At this point I calmly remind my friend that we agreed on the OSPD.

“That’s dumb. Who said that those words should be in the OSPD?” says he or she, but usually she.

At this point I give the Every Lexicographer Has to Make Some Tough Choices speech, in my patient linguist voice. It usually doesn’t help, and there is much grumbling.

I tend to resist changes to Scrabble. I was against adding ‘qi’ to the Fourth Edition. I thought it made it too easy to unload the Q. Eventually I got used to it.

But now Mattel has gone too far.

The rules of word game Scrabble are being changed for the first time in its history to allow the use of proper nouns, games company Mattel has said.

Place names, people’s names and company names or brands will now count.

Mattel, which brings out a new version of the game containing amended rules in July, hopes the change will encourage younger people to play.

What, any proper noun? Xerox? Zovirax? Qwyjibo?

This doesn’t seem well-thought out. How can you check if a proper noun is unacceptable?

Mattel said there would be no hard and fast rule over whether a proper noun was correct or not.

I think I’m going to be kicking it Old School on this one. No proper nouns at my place. Or foreign words, abbreviations, or usu. cap.

Donate or pulp? A quandry

I still haven’t decided what to do with them. We’re talking old Sunday School manuals, and a couple of copies of the Book of Mormon.
Your comments welcome in comments.

Catholic archbishop goes all Godwin on our ass

I love how Catholic leaders are being forced to deal with the so-called New Atheism in public nowadays. But they’re going overboard. Usually we’re just accused of being mean to people. Now Archbishop Anthony Fisher is saddling us with the collective baggage of the 20th century. It’s not a new tactic, but one would think a Catholic archbishop would be a mite careful about criticising another philosophy for rotten things done in its name. Sadly, irony doesn’t seem to be his strong point.

GODLESSNESS and secularism led to Nazism, Stalinism, mass murder and abortion, according to Anthony Fisher, the new Archbishop of Parramatta, who has used his inaugural Easter message to launch a scathing attack on atheism, while ignoring the sex abuse scandals besieging the Catholic Church worldwide.

It’s a bit rich for a Catholic archbishop to be claiming Nazism is a consequence of atheism. Hitler was a Catholic, and was never excommunicated. The failure of Pope Pius XII to act during the Holocaust is a modern tragedy, and it’s telling that the current pope has venerated him, a step on the road to sainthood.

How anyone can claim Hitler was an atheist is beyond me. He said in speeches that he felt he was doing God’s work. Maybe Hitler didn’t believe it. Maybe he was hypocritically mouthing religious platitudes to get people to agree with him. All the more reason to be suspicious of politicians who claim to be religious. But Hitler did claim to be on the side of the Big Guy. Check out the belt buckle for one example. If your German is as rusty as mine, here’s a hint: “Gott Mit Uns” does not mean “We have gloves on”.

That’s Hitler. But what about Stalin and Pol Pot, and the terrible things they did in the name of atheism? Oh, that’s right, they didn’t do those things in the name of atheism. They did them in the name of Communism and the Khmer Rouge. Though they were atheists, the atrocities they committed were done to further their political goals, not to promote atheism.

I’m not trying to say that atheists can’t do rotten things. Anyone can when they’re in the grip of an absolutist philosophy, whether religious or political. But name me anyone who’s killed people or started a war to promote secular rationalism. No one does. It just isn’t in our line.

For the record, I don’t blame Catholicism or Christianity for mass murder either (except in those cases where an ideological link can be made). People seem to pick up these ideologies and use them for their own ends, and it’s a shame. Someday maybe someone will shoot up a high school and claim it was for atheism. It never seems to happen — violent ideologies seem to be religion-based more often than not — but it might someday. If it does, I’ll say the same thing I’m saying today: inflexible ideologies in the hands of unbalanced people are a problem. But that doesn’t describe your average New Atheist, who usually just wants to talk about secular issues (often at a pub), and who doesn’t believe in supernatural beings without adequate evidence.

At least Fisher didn’t accuse atheists of systematic child sex abuse. That would have been a giveaway.

UPDATE: Atheists hit back.

The Atheist Foundation of Australia said on Friday Dr Jensen’s claims were “preposterous” and condemned Christianity for a spate of child sex abuse scandals.

“He seeks out a scapegoat and attacks atheism without any understanding of what he is saying,” foundation president David Nicholls said.

“To state we hate his god or are attacking his god is nonsense.

“How does one hate or attack that which does not exist?”

Another conversation I learned something from

Post 800

Eight hundred posts. How do I come up with so many things to write about?

Practice.

I practice by glowering angrily in the mirror, denouncing random objects while hanging laundry, a few push-ups, and then typing random characters to see if they spell anything interesting.

Here are some stats regarding my posting.

Anyway, feel free to say anything you’d like in comments. That’s what we do around here for every hundredth post.

Sunday blasphemy: Loan sharking for Jesus

The Jehovah’s Witnesses came by today. Sadly, they couldn’t stay — I was hoping they could explain why they don’t seem to like higher education.

Instead, they were offering this advertisement for a meeting about Jesus.

It seems that Jesus gave his life for you, and you should be very grateful to him. It would also appear that if you’re not, then there will be Eternal Consequences, including not existing.

Gavin de Becker, in his book The Gift of Fear, lists some behaviours of untrustworthy people. One of these behaviours is loan sharking. The loan shark tries to screw you over by doing something for you that you didn’t ask for, and then making you feel indebted so you’ll reciprocate. Ever known someone like that?

The ‘loan shark’ tactic is an integral part of Christianity. You’ve contracted some kind of debt, either because you were born, or because you did something wrong due to your sinful human nature. Now you’re hosed. But Jesus paid your debt. Aren’t you glad? Don’t you think you owe him one, after all he did for you? You wouldn’t want to retroactively increase his sufferings by continuing in sin, would you? So spend the rest of your life giving time and money to a church and meeting a series of ever-escalating commitments, because after all, Jesus did so much for you.

Loan sharking. Watch for it.

Not reading, citing.

Yikes. Simkin and Roychowdhury posit that only about 20% of authors actually read the articles they’re citing. The estimate is based on citations that appear identically in different scientific papers, but which are actually wrong.

They assume this means that the author hasn’t read the original source. I would dispute this. I have lots of articles that I’ve read, but which for one reason or another don’t have the citation data printed on them. I chase the citations up on these (when I cite them) because I’m paranoid about getting the citation data wrong, but boy, is it ever tempting to pull up someone else’s paper and find the citation already there for you. I think the authors are too quick to discount the possibility that this is what’s happening.

I haven’t read all of the article yet, but I probably will soon.

In Mormon apologetics, two wrongs do make a right.

Michael R. Ash of the Mormon Times has been constructing a case for non-Lehite inhabitants of ancient America. The story is advancing slowly, but it takes a long time to dismantle statements from past church leaders, and to redefine words like ‘true’, ‘correct,’ ‘historicity’ and ‘verisimilitude’.

In case you missed it last time, here’s the problem: If the ‘Lehites’ — Hebrew immigrants to the Americas — were the only ones there, why don’t we see their DNA in current populations? How do we explain the incredible linguistic diversity of the Americas from just a few speakers of Semetic languages? Why don’t Native American languages today appear to have any trace of Hebrew or Egyptian? And as we discussed before, why is Ash having to explain away statements from Church leaders who believed that the land was empty except for the Lehites?

Ash and other LDS apologists have concluded that the land really was inhabited before the Lehites came along. (Which is quite correct, except for the part about the Lehites coming along.) However, the Book of Mormon has some trouble fitting into this model, in part because of the puzzling failure of the Lehites to mention anyone not of Hebrew origin in the Book of Mormon narrative.

In his latest column, Ash gives two possible reasons why the Nephites didn’t mention the ‘other people’ they were surrounded by:

1) the early material from Large Plates — which may have mentioned “others” — was not included in our English translation

This resembles the logic that George W. Bush used when WMDs weren’t found in Iraq: Maybe they’re over there! No? How about over there? Don’t worry, we’ll find ’em someday.

Okay, so the Lehites might have mentioned ‘others’ in the Large Plates. They also might have mentioned potatoes and pumpkins, which they almost certainly ate, but which don’t get a mention in the Book of Mormon. Who knows? It might be true, but it seems a bit (again) prestidigitatious to push the possibility onto a book that no one has access to.

And this is part of the problem with some of Ash’s arguments: they’re terribly speculative. Is it wrong to speculate? Well, no, not always. But Ash is asking us to believe his speculations, having just trashed a lot of speculations by LDS leaders who are much more authoritative than he is. Should we believe Michael Ash, or Joseph Smith? Or I’ve got an idea. How about neither?

and 2) the Small Plates were focused on the ethnogenesis and religious ministry of the Nephite people and would have been unconcerned with any “others” in such a narrative.

Hmm. Tell me more.

From a close reading of the Book of Mormon text, we find that Nephites and Lamanites were sociopolitical names. The Book of Mormon writers were Nephites, and virtually everyone else is referred to with the exonym Lamanite (the term “Lamanite” will be discussed in greater detail in the near future).

Well, I am impressed with the word ‘exonym’. Should be a corker if I can use it in Scrabble on a triple word score. And I can’t wait for him to redefine ‘Lamanite’. Perhaps it will mean ‘person with no DNA whatsoever’.

But I’m getting away from the point. Ash (and now-frequent commenter Seth R.) are arguing that the Lehites didn’t really care so much about the hoards of original inhabitants around them. They never wrote about them because they weren’t in the habit of writing about people not of their group. You know how ethnocentric those ancient people were! (Oh, you don’t? I’m betting Seth and Mr Ash don’t either.)

Of course, this is flat wrong. Lehites in the Book of Mormon do in fact run into other people, and write about them. They run into the ‘people of Zarahemla‘ (which Latter-day Saints now call Mulekites), who allegedly came from bible lands in a different group from the Lehites.

Mulekites, for their part, also encountered and wrote about someone not of their own tribe: Coriantumr. He was supposed to be a decendant of the Jaredites, also allegedly from the Middle East.

So people in the Book of Mormon do find and write about people not of their own immediate group. But they never encounter any of the real native inhabitants of the Americas, like we’d expect them to. They just keep bumping into people from the Middle East. (What are the odds?) And why? I think it’s because the author of the Book of Mormon really was advancing a hypothesis that the Hebrews were the only ones there. The Book of Mormon is an origin myth, attempting to explain how people got to the New World. A hundred and fifty years ago, the idea that they came from the land of the Hebrews was a plausible hypothesis, but the idea has been thoroughly dismanted by a century of evidence from archaeology, anthropology, genetics, and linguistics.

Notice once again that Ash doesn’t advance any testable notions of where Lehites were. He doesn’t have to. All he has to do is blur things so that his preconceived conclusion could be true. Maybe it is true. Maybe not. As long as it preserves the faith, what does it matter?

Let’s move on. The next part is genius.

Another of the weaknesses of the Book of Mormon is that it postulates an absurdly fecund population model once the Lehites arrive. There’s no way you could have as many people as the Book of Mormon claims from just the Lehites. But watch the jiu jitsu: Ash uses this problem to cancel out the problem of the invisible ‘others’!

Within 15 years, Joseph and Jacob were made priests and teachers “over the land of my (Nephi’s) people” (2 Nephi 5:26). We read that within 25 years of their New World arrival, the Nephites were at “war” with the Lamanites. What kind of “war” could possibly exist with the few adults that may have been around without the infusion of pre-existing cultures?

Fifteen years later, some of the Nephite men began desiring “many wives and concubines” (Jacob 1:15). How many women could there have been if there were no others besides the original Lehite party?

By about 200 B.C. “corn” (American maize) is mentioned as the grain of preference among the Lamanites (Mosiah 7:22, 9:14). Corn, a uniquely American grain, could not have been brought from Lehi’s world and could not have been discovered wild upon arrival because of its complex cultivating techniques that will only reproduce new corn with human care. This strongly implies that others already were cultivating corn and taught the technique to Book of Mormon peoples.

Beginning about 500 years after the Lehites arrived, we read about “thousands” or even tens of thousands of warring soldiers. Such a rapid population growth would not have been possible without the presence of “others.”

This is amazing stuff. I wonder if I could try that.

You know how people criticise the Book of Mormon for containing the word ‘adieu‘? Of course, Joseph Smith could have used any French words he knew when translating, but I have a better answer. French speakers might have migrated to ancient America, swimming over on horses, which is why Book of Mormon people had them. After all, it must be trivial to migrate from Jerusalem to some undefined point in North/South/Central America. The Book of Mormon describes it happening on three separate occasions, so it could have happened again. There’s nothing you can’t do as long as you have the Lord, and enough barley for your swimming horse.

People say that the use of swords and cimeters in the Book of Mormon is anachronistic. But they haven’t considered the real source of swords and cimeters: the post-mortal Paul, who might have minstered unto the Lehites through time travel. Here he distributed cutlery unto the Lehites, and also gave his famous (through eerily New Testamental) discourse about charity, which eventually filtered down to Moroni.

Damn, I hope Ash is getting paid for this. It’s hard work. Doing apologetics with this kind of material, I mean. Well, that and getting paid for something that others would gladly do for free.

UPDATE: It occurred to me that Paul didn’t have to be ‘post-mortal’ if he had a time machine. He could have been alive when he handed the scimeters to the Lehites (and subsequently collected them so as not to leave evidence). But whether he was alive or not at the time hasn’t yet been revealed. It must not be important for our salvation. As always, prayer is the only way to really be certain of my conclusions, like I am. Really certain.

I’ve always been partial to Selket myself.

Many thanks to kcrady for providing the inspiration for this comic.

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